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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd