Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”