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Just 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – not just the winner citywide, and block by block. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious although failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were two big batches of ballots that came in after that and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible where yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where Cuomo was going to end up basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. But the winner added half a million supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president last year went for the progressive now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over half. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he does so then no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Including Tottenville in the borough, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That really surprised me. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I think there was significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and homeowners supported Cuomo. Thus there was a little resistance. However no, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the election there was coverage on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if existed major surprises on this one, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key figures from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that each urban center in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities exist.