Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.