Beyond the Pomp of Vladimir Putin's Delhi Trip: The India-Russia Relationship That Has Frayed.
This rhetoric and imagery from Russian leader Vladimir Putin's most recent visit to India hinted at a robust bilateral partnership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the airport with a embrace, and the statesmen shared a ride together, echoing a familiar diplomatic gesture. In his comments, Modi called Putin as "my friend" and described the India-Russia connection as a "beacon", built on "mutual respect and deep trust" that had "stood the test of time". This marked Putin's tenth trip to India over his quarter-century rule and his twentieth encounter with Modi after the latter assumed office in 2014.
A Chasm Separating Pageantry and Reality
However, a noticeable disconnect exists between the ceremony and the actual content of this partnership. Although Putin vowed "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's companies are actually buying a reduced amount of Russian oil in the face of international tariffs and sanctions. The two nations concluded a series of agreements covering mobility, health, food security, naval cooperation, and academic collaboration. However, expected revelations on major military deals failed to materialize. India has not concluded any major defence agreements with Russia since the 2022 offensive of Ukraine, a trend driven by holdups in shipments of platforms and components as Moscow focuses on its own wartime requirements.
A Partnership With Diminished Geopolitical Heft
These developments suggests that the Indo-Russian dynamic no longer holds the same strategic heft it previously did. In the Cold War, India maintained special barter arrangements and market access to the Soviet Union and its satellite states. This privileged alliance reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed before a conflict with Pakistan where Islamabad was backed by the US and China. While both nations have attempted to maintain a semblance of this close tie through a "unique and elevated" strategic partnership announced in 2010, the reality is that their engagement does not have the former significance as New Delhi has substantially strengthened relations with the Western world.
Broadening and Underlying Contradictions
New Delhi is unlikely to sever its important relationship with Moscow. Yet, as Western coercion mounts on India to curtail its purchases of Russian oil, both nations are attempting to diversify the relationship into other sectors. During Putin's visit, they announced an economic cooperation programme lasting until 2030, aiming to make their ties "more diversified, equitable and sustainable". This involves improving market access for Indian products to rectify a trade deficit heavily skewed in Russia's favor. Cooperation between the two spans multiple strategically important sectors – from aerospace and atomic energy to defence and food security.
Ideological Affinity and Seen Dependability
At an sentimental plane, a high degree of closeness with Russia persists, particularly among older cohorts of officials in New Delhi who recall Moscow's crucial role during the Cold War. This has translated into a certain level of understanding for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. During ongoing frictions between India and the US, in which American leaders have made sharp remarks about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a increasingly reliable ally.
This key difficulty, of course, is the continuing war in Ukraine.
The comprehensive joint statement released during Putin's visit made no reference to Ukraine, despite it ironically described the partnership as an "pillar of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's much-touted statement that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's public actions regarding the war have been minimal.
Squaring the Dilemma: India's Foreign Policy Tightrope
This dynamic highlights the inherent complexities in India's international stance. The nation is set to finalize a free trade agreement with the EU, after a similar agreement with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada announced a three-way technology partnership. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as efforts are being made to strengthen people-to-people contacts between India and Russia.
How will India resolve this circle? New Delhi will be hoping that ongoing talks will succeed, leading to a end of hostilities and the elimination of a key irritant in its relations with the Western bloc. But, should a settlement is achieved, if it fails of a "just peace" that upholds Ukraine's independence and borders, critical examination of the India-Russia alliance will certainly continue in Western governments.