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On occasions when the wind flows from the east from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for disruptions.

That is when enormous inflatables are dispatched across the border, with crates of contraband goods dangling beneath.

Over the last two and a half months, this unauthorized aerial activity has caused Lithuania's main airport into closure 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the airspace was shut down entirely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the authorities are adamant they are facing something considerably more sinister than mere smugglers.

They contend the balloons have been utilized as instruments of provocation in an manifestation of covert aggression by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.

State of Alert

The Lithuanian administration has instituted an emergency situation.

While balloons have been used by smugglers in the past, their numbers escalated rapidly this October.

"Of course it began as criminal enterprise, but we've seen more than once how Belarus uses criminal networks to have an effect on bordering nations," a government minister stated.

The official argued the balloons are sent from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or swamps, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.

Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of political blackmail on Europe's eastern edge.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the military and security field."

Border Vigilance

Now, every night, security forces patrol in the frontier area.

The balloons are most common after dark.

Teams establish mobile checkpoints on isolated lanes, inspecting drivers' documents and searching vehicles looking for anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons travel too high up to make intercepting them with firearms a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has announced a substantial reward to any firm that can devise how to safely stop them.

Currently, teams use military radar to track the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new legal penalties for aviation disruption should also act as a deterrent.

Strategic Motives

The border itself is now defined by a high security barrier, with barbed wire and concrete blocks.

This enhanced fortification is a clear sign of how Lithuania now perceives its neighbour as hostile.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "nonsense".

He recently blamed "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, provoking a deliberate crisis.

"Now they are doing a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a crisis management official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it immediately. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."

The suspicion is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into lifting international restrictions.

"They want to attract political attention and compel us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister interprets the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as legitimate following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were imposed then and tightened later when Belarus aided Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.

Consequences for Travel

Currently, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's not easy, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.

"We believe this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words suggest that another aim of such hybrid activity – creating division – is also having an effect, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"This is effectively probing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even fight simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the fundamental challenges."